Tulsa 2045: Floods, Tornadoes, and the Heat
Tulsa has the distinction of being one of the most flood-prone cities in the United States — the Arkansas River and its tributaries have flooded Tulsa multiple times, and the city has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in flood control infrastructure. Despite these investments, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of flood events, while simultaneously driving extreme heat and tornado risk. SafeHaven 2045 assigns Tulsa a Resilience Index of 33/100, grade F.
Arkansas River Flooding: Tulsa's Persistent Challenge
The 2019 Arkansas River flood — which crested at 23.17 feet in Tulsa, the highest level since 1986 — caused significant damage despite the city's flood control infrastructure. Climate projections show that extreme precipitation events in the Arkansas River basin will intensify, increasing both flood frequency and peak flows. Tulsa's Levee District provides protection for much of the city, but the levees were designed for historical flood frequencies.
Tornado Risk: Tornado Alley's Core
Tulsa sits in the core of Tornado Alley. The May 2003 tornado outbreak, which produced multiple tornadoes in the Tulsa area, and the 2011 Joplin tornado (90 miles to the northeast) demonstrated the catastrophic potential of Great Plains tornadoes. Climate projections suggest that tornado activity may shift eastward and intensify.
Heat: 60 Days Above 100°F by 2045
NASA projects Tulsa will experience 60 days above 100°F annually by 2045, up from approximately 15 today. Oklahoma's high humidity amplifies heat stress significantly. Tulsa's aging housing stock and high poverty rate mean that many residents lack adequate cooling.
Hail: The Underappreciated Damage Driver
Tulsa is one of the most hail-prone cities in the United States. Climate projections suggest that large hail events may become more frequent as atmospheric instability increases. Hail damage to roofs, vehicles, and HVAC equipment is a significant recurring cost for Tulsa homeowners.
Resilience Actions for Tulsa Homeowners
- Know your Arkansas River flood zone — FEMA's flood maps for Tulsa County identify properties at risk.
- Install a safe room or storm shelter for tornado events.
- Install impact-resistant roofing — hail damage is a primary driver of insurance claims in Tulsa.
- Install a whole-home generator for heat dome and post-storm grid outages.
- Purchase flood insurance if you are in a FEMA flood zone.
*Based on probabilistic climate modeling (SSP5-8.5 scenario). Not financial or architectural advice. Sources: NOAA, FEMA NRI v1.20 (Dec 2025), NOAA Storm Prediction Center.*