CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE DATABASE

CITY GUIDES 2045

In-depth climate risk assessments for the 50 most at-risk US cities. Data sourced from NOAA SSP5-8.5, NASA, and FEMA NRI v1.20 (Dec 2025).

50
Cities Analyzed
21
CRITICAL Risk
29
HIGH Risk
2025–26
Data Vintage
50 cities
#1
CRITICAL
FL · 33101

Miami

Gulf Coast

26
38cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Sea level rise 38cm by 2045
Category 5 hurricane surge
62/yr
Heat Days
+38cm
Sea Level
22%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#2
CRITICAL
LA · 70112

New Orleans

Gulf Coast

21
42cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Below sea level topography
Mississippi River flooding
58/yr
Heat Days
+42cm
Sea Level
18%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#3
CRITICAL
TX · 77001

Houston

Gulf Coast

29
74Days >100°F by 2045
Harvey-scale flooding every 5 years by 2045
Extreme heat dome 70+ days
74/yr
Heat Days
+18cm
Sea Level
31%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#4
CRITICAL
FL · 33601

Tampa

Gulf Coast

28
6m+Potential Storm Surge Height
Direct hurricane strike probability rising
Tampa Bay storm surge 6m+
55/yr
Heat Days
+34cm
Sea Level
24%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#5
CRITICAL
FL · 33301

Fort Lauderdale

Gulf Coast

24
36cmSea Level Rise by 2045
King tide flooding of streets
Saltwater intrusion into aquifer
60/yr
Heat Days
+36cm
Sea Level
20%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#6
HIGH
AZ · 85001

Phoenix

Desert Southwest

33
108Days >100°F by 2045
Extreme heat 100+ days by 2045
Water scarcity Colorado River
108/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
48%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#7
CRITICAL
TX · 77550

Galveston

Gulf Coast

19
45cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Island inundation by 2045
Hurricane Ike-level surge annually
68/yr
Heat Days
+45cm
Sea Level
14%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#8
HIGH
VA · 23501

Norfolk

Mid-Atlantic

32
40cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Fastest sinking city in US
Chesapeake Bay flooding
28/yr
Heat Days
+40cm
Sea Level
35%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#9
HIGH
CA · 90001

Los Angeles

West Coast

38
45Days >100°F by 2045
Wildfire urban interface
Extreme heat 45 days
45/yr
Heat Days
+15cm
Sea Level
28%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#10
CRITICAL
SC · 29401

Charleston

Southeast Atlantic

30
35cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Chronic nuisance flooding
Hurricane Matthew-level events
42/yr
Heat Days
+35cm
Sea Level
28%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#11
CRITICAL
FL · 33040

Key West

Gulf Coast

15
15Resilience Score (Lowest in US)
Island inundation by 2040
Sea level rise 45cm
65/yr
Heat Days
+45cm
Sea Level
10%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#12
HIGH
NV · 89101

Las Vegas

Desert Southwest

34
95Days >100°F by 2045
Extreme heat 95 days
Lake Mead water crisis
95/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
45%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#13
HIGH
NY · 10001

New York City

Northeast Atlantic

40
30cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Sandy-level surge every 5 years
Subway flooding
25/yr
Heat Days
+30cm
Sea Level
42%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#14
HIGH
WA · 98101

Seattle

Pacific Northwest

42
9.0Cascadia Earthquake Magnitude
Cascadia subduction zone tsunami
Wildfire smoke
18/yr
Heat Days
+14cm
Sea Level
44%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#15
HIGH
MA · 02101

Boston

Northeast Atlantic

38
26cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Boston Harbor flooding
Nor'easter intensification
22/yr
Heat Days
+26cm
Sea Level
40%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#16
HIGH
CA · 95814

Sacramento

West Coast

35
65Days >100°F by 2045
Delta levee failure risk
Atmospheric river flooding
65/yr
Heat Days
+8cm
Sea Level
30%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#17
HIGH
CA · 94102

San Francisco

West Coast

37
20cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Bay Area sea level rise
Wildfire smoke
12/yr
Heat Days
+20cm
Sea Level
30%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#18
HIGH
OR · 97201

Portland

Pacific Northwest

39
116°F2021 Heat Dome Record
Wildfire smoke 45 days/year
Extreme heat dome (116°F record)
32/yr
Heat Days
+10cm
Sea Level
42%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#19
HIGH
TX · 75201

Dallas

Southern Plains

35
70Days >100°F by 2045
Trinity River flooding
Extreme heat 70 days
70/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
38%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#20
HIGH
OK · 73101

Oklahoma City

Southern Plains

34
65Days >100°F by 2045
Tornado alley intensification
Extreme heat 65 days
65/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
36%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#21
HIGH
TN · 38101

Memphis

Mid-South

36
50Days >100°F by 2045
Mississippi River flooding
Extreme heat 50 days
50/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
38%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#22
CRITICAL
HI · 96801

Honolulu

Pacific Islands

29
35cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Island coastline erosion
Sea level rise 35cm
30/yr
Heat Days
+35cm
Sea Level
30%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#23
CRITICAL
TX · 78401

Corpus Christi

Gulf Coast

27
82Days >100°F by 2045
Laguna Madre flooding
Gulf hurricane direct path
82/yr
Heat Days
+32cm
Sea Level
26%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#24
CRITICAL
LA · 70801

Baton Rouge

Gulf Coast

27
65Days >100°F by 2045
Mississippi River flooding
Extreme heat 65 days
65/yr
Heat Days
+22cm
Sea Level
20%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#25
CRITICAL
MS · 39201

Jackson

Mid-South

28
60Days >100°F by 2045
Pearl River flooding
Extreme heat 60 days
60/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
25%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#26
CRITICAL
MS · 39530

Biloxi

Gulf Coast

24
32cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Gulf Coast storm surge
Katrina-level hurricane risk
58/yr
Heat Days
+32cm
Sea Level
18%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#27
HIGH
GA · 31401

Savannah

Southeast Atlantic

33
30cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Savannah River flooding
Atlantic hurricane exposure
45/yr
Heat Days
+30cm
Sea Level
32%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#28
HIGH
NJ · 08401

Atlantic City

Northeast Atlantic

31
32cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Barrier island flooding
Sandy-level storm surge
18/yr
Heat Days
+32cm
Sea Level
33%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#29
HIGH
NC · 28401

Wilmington

Southeast Atlantic

34
28cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Cape Fear River flooding
Hurricane Florence-level events
38/yr
Heat Days
+28cm
Sea Level
34%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#30
CRITICAL
TX · 77701

Beaumont

Gulf Coast

25
75Days >100°F by 2045
Neches River catastrophic flooding
Harvey-level events every 3 years
75/yr
Heat Days
+20cm
Sea Level
22%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#31
HIGH
VA · 23451

Virginia Beach

Mid-Atlantic

33
38cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Oceanfront inundation
Land subsidence
26/yr
Heat Days
+38cm
Sea Level
36%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#32
HIGH
RI · 02901

Providence

Northeast Atlantic

36
28cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Narragansett Bay storm surge
Extreme precipitation flooding
15/yr
Heat Days
+28cm
Sea Level
38%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#33
HIGH
AZ · 85701

Tucson

Desert Southwest

36
90Days >100°F by 2045
Extreme heat 90 days
Aquifer depletion
90/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
44%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#34
HIGH
TX · 78201

San Antonio

Southern Plains

36
72Days >100°F by 2045
Flash flood alley
Extreme heat 72 days
72/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
40%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#35
CRITICAL
CA · 93701

Fresno

West Coast

30
85Days >100°F by 2045
Extreme heat 85 days
San Joaquin Valley flooding
85/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
28%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#36
CRITICAL
CA · 93301

Bakersfield

West Coast

28
95Days >100°F by 2045
Extreme heat 95 days
Kern River flooding
95/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
25%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#37
HIGH
CA · 94601

Oakland

West Coast

34
40Days >100°F by 2045
Wildfire urban interface
East Bay Hills fire risk
40/yr
Heat Days
+18cm
Sea Level
28%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#38
HIGH
CA · 92501

Riverside

West Coast

31
80Days >100°F by 2045
Extreme heat 80 days
Wildfire interface
80/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
26%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#39
CRITICAL
LA · 71101

Shreveport

Gulf Coast

29
65Days >100°F by 2045
Red River flooding
Extreme heat 65 days
65/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
24%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#40
CRITICAL
CA · 95201

Stockton

West Coast

30
75Days >100°F by 2045
San Joaquin Delta flooding
Extreme heat 75 days
75/yr
Heat Days
+5cm
Sea Level
26%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#41
CRITICAL
FL · 32501

Pensacola

Gulf Coast

30
30cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Escambia Bay flooding
Panhandle hurricane corridor
55/yr
Heat Days
+30cm
Sea Level
27%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#42
HIGH
AL · 36601

Mobile

Gulf Coast

32
28cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Mobile Bay storm surge
Gulf hurricane exposure
52/yr
Heat Days
+28cm
Sea Level
30%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#43
HIGH
KY · 40201

Louisville

Mid-South

37
45Days >100°F by 2045
Ohio River flooding
Extreme heat 45 days
45/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
40%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#44
HIGH
AR · 72201

Little Rock

Mid-South

35
55Days >100°F by 2045
Arkansas River flooding
Extreme heat 55 days
55/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
38%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#45
HIGH
OK · 74101

Tulsa

Southern Plains

33
60Days >100°F by 2045
Arkansas River flooding
Tornado risk
60/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
35%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#46
HIGH
AL · 35201

Birmingham

Southeast

37
48Days >100°F by 2045
Tornado risk
Extreme heat 48 days
48/yr
Heat Days
N/A
Sea Level
40%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#47
HIGH
AK · 99501

Anchorage

Arctic

31
4xArctic Warming vs Global Average
Permafrost thaw infrastructure collapse
Wildfire expansion
8/yr
Heat Days
+12cm
Sea Level
38%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#48
HIGH
FL · 32099

Jacksonville

Southeast Atlantic

31
28cmSea Level Rise by 2045
St. Johns River flooding
Atlantic hurricane exposure
48/yr
Heat Days
+28cm
Sea Level
29%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#49
CRITICAL
TX · 78520

Brownsville

Gulf Coast

22
85Days >100°F by 2045
Rio Grande flooding
Gulf hurricane direct path
85/yr
Heat Days
+28cm
Sea Level
19%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
#50
CRITICAL
FL · 33901

Cape Coral

Gulf Coast

23
36cmSea Level Rise by 2045
Canal system flooding
Hurricane Ian-level surge
58/yr
Heat Days
+36cm
Sea Level
20%
Insurance
READ FULL GUIDE
All city guides are based on probabilistic climate modeling (SSP5-8.5 scenario). Data sources: NOAA Sea Level Rise Scenarios (2022), NASA county-level climate projections, FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), U.S. Senate Budget Committee Insurance Report (December 2024). Not financial, legal, or architectural advice. Users assume all risk for property decisions.